Better, but how much?

There is no doubt that this year’s Hoosiers will be better than last year’s. That’s not exactly a bold statement when you are talking about a team that hit rock bottom with just 6 wins on the season, including losing 21 out of their last 22 contests.

What are the main reasons they will be better?

1. Jeremiah Rivers – Last year, walk-on freshman Daniel Moore averaged 17.2 minutes per game, including 10 starts. This year, enter Jeremiah Rivers who played 2 years of Big East basketball, went to a Final Four, and was named to the conference All-Defensive team. Need I say more?
2. Players 6’8” and taller – The addition of Watford, Elston, Capobianco, and Maniru make the Hoosiers look like a legitimate college basketball team during warm-ups. Last year, they literally looked like a high school team.
3. Returning Players – Considering everything, Jones, Dumes, Pritchard, and Roth did a more than admirable job last year. Nothing beats real-game experience and these guys got a lot more experience than your average freshmen or 1st-year transfers. By all accounts, these guys have worked hard to get better and genuinely seem excited to have the talent of the incoming freshmen and a real shot at winning some games.
4. Shooters – Last year, Dumes and Roth were the main 3-point threats. Those 2 guys return, plus you add Creek as a legitimate threat from downtown and Hulls will knock them down when given the opportunity. Not only that, but rumor is that Verdell’s shot has really improved and the likes of Watford, Capobianco, and Elston can also knock down the occasional 3-ball.
5. Talent – the most important factor is the upgrade in talent. Better size, better athleticism, better shooters, better defenders…..really, any way you look at it, this team will be far more talented than last year’s. That will also make a huge difference in practice and there will be real competition for playing time.

What are the unanswered questions?

1. Jeremiah Rivers – How good is Jeremiah Rivers? We will definitely take a proven defender that is 6’5” tall, strong, and athletic. Are you kidding me? After last year, you had me at proven defender. But what I really want to know is how good will Jeremiah Rivers be? His offensive numbers were horrible at Georgetown. Most articles will tell you that the Princeton-style offense did not suit Jeremiah’s game and that Crean’s style will show his talents. It should be interesting to watch unfold.
2. Rebuilding – After last year, this may not seem like a rebuilding year. Last year wasn’t a rebuilding year, it was rebuilding the entire program. But any time you are bringing in 7 new players and adding them to returning players that have only been in the program for a single year, that is still likely to be the biggest rebuilding year in the country. So, the unanswered question is how big of a hurdle will the youth and rebuilding effort be this year?
3. Who’s the go-to guy? This team is going to play in a lot, and I mean a lot, of close games this year. Whether or not they have a true go-to guy that can deliver in the clutch could be the difference between an 11-win season or a 19-win season. Last year, Dumes tried to force things at the end of games and couldn’t deliver. Roth had a couple shots that he missed, but he needs better plays to set him up with better looks at the basket. Jones made some good plays down the stretch, but couldn’t seem to string together enough of them to pull out the win.
4. How good are the freshmen? In a normal year, I think you would expect to see contributions out of Watford and Creek, spot minutes out of Hulls, Elston, and Capobianco, and a redshirt for Maniru. However, due to our lack of size, you know Elston and Capobianco will see more than spot minutes and all the freshmen will likely play a larger role than you would expect in a normal year. If the freshmen aren’t truly ready for the role they are going to have to play, it’s going to be another long year. But if most of them can play at or above expectations, then we might surprise some people.

Those are just some of the things that are rattling around in my noggin as we head into the season. Now let’s take a closer look at the schedule and see if we can come up with some predictions on the season record.

Before the schedule even comes out, I’m thinking about all of this stuff at least 7 hours a day at work. So before I ever looked at the schedule, my gut was telling me something like a record of 14-16 this year.

My next step is to actually look at the schedule when it comes out and try to assess whether I think we would be favored to actually win the game. This is not a scientific method, it is just me looking at the opponent’s name on the schedule and doing a 2-second assessment of whether I think we would be favored or not. Often times, I don’t even know that much about the opponents at this point. Anyway, when I first looked at our schedule for this year, I only came up with 11 wins using that method.

The good news is that I am sticking more with my gut on this one and I think the Hoosiers will manage 14 wins this year. That’s definitely a vote of confidence for Coach Tom Crean in that I think he has this program clearly on the right track. Most years, you will probably win a game or two or three that you shouldn’t have and lose a game or two or three that you should have won. This year, I think the work ethic and energy that Tom Crean has created will have the Hoosiers on the plus-side of this equation this year.

Also, I think the IU Gorilla and Assembly Hall will be rockin’ this year. I sense that the fan base really likes how Crean is rebuilding this program. He is doing things the right way by recruiting good kids, preaching academics, and saying all the right things. He is also doing everything in his power to promote the program, reunite and honor past players, and even trying to get Bobby back involved with the program (whether that be the upcoming IU Hall of Fame induction or some point in the future).

I’m curious to hear some comments from my fellow Hoosier fans on the number of wins for this team. For the dreamers out there, I have allowed myself to dream about 19 regular season wins, a good showing in the B10 Tourney, and sneaking into the Big Dance. If you go a step down from that, I think a 16-win season and NIT birth would be a wildly successful season. I think the reality is around a 13 or 14 win season and I would be disappointed if we were only 5 wins better than last year at 11 wins.

One of the main factors that I think we need to temper our enthusiasm is the talent level in the Big Ten conference. This is a conference that had a team in the NCAA title game, sent 7 teams to the Big Dance, and had a team win the NIT. I’m not going to go through a conference preview, but almost all of those 8 aforementioned teams are as good or better this year and returning most, if not all, of their best players. The Big Ten had very few early NBA entrants and very few graduating seniors that were the best players on their team. So, when it comes time for conference play, that is where I think the Hoosiers are going to play in a lot of close games, but unfortunately lose a lot of close games. So, on that note, here are my predictions:

11/13/09	Howard	W
11/16/09	USC Upstate	W
11/19/09	Puerto Rico: Mississippi	L
11/20/09	Puerto Rico: Boston U or Kansas St	L
11/22/09	Puerto Rico: TBD	W
11/28/09	Northwestern State	W
12/1/09	Maryland	L
12/8/09	Jimmy V Classic (NY): Pittsburgh	L
12/12/09	Kentucky	L
12/19/09	North Carolina Central	W
12/22/09	Loyala, Md	W
12/28/09	Bryant U	W
12/31/09	Michigan	W
1/6/10	@ Ohio State	L
1/9/10	Illinois	W
1/14/10	@ Michigan	L
1/17/10	Minnesota	W
1/21/10	@ Penn State	W
1/24/10	Iowa	W
1/30/10	@ Illinois	L
2/4/10	Purdue	L
2/7/10	@ Northwestern	W
2/10/10	Ohio State	L
2/13/10	@ Wisconsin	L
2/16/10	Michigan State	L
2/20/10*	@ Minnesota	L
2/25/10	Wisconsin	W
2/28/10	@ Iowa	W
3/2/10*	@ Purdue	L
3/6/10	Northwestern	W

* exact date is TBD

Well, after going through that exercise, I have the Hoosiers with 16 total wins and going 9-9 in the Big Ten. Honestly, I think that is optimistic and I would be thrilled with a 10-game improvement over last year. After going through game by game, here is what I found interesting:

• I love the pre-conference schedule.
  • Cupcakes - It looks like several cupcakes that I hope do truly turn out to be cupcakes.
  • Puerto Rico – I think Puerto Rico will be a great early-season measuring stick of where this team is. They play 3 games in 4 days and all 3 games should be against teams that I would project as bubble teams (not great teams, but definitely good and solid teams).
  • Big-time competition – they have a big-time 3-game stretch against Maryland, Pittsburgh, and Kentucky. Can they pull off an upset???
• Longest predicted winning streak = 4 games. A stretch that finishes the non-conference schedule with NC Central, Loyola, and Bryant and then a big win in the conference opener at home against Michigan.
• Best stretch = winning 8 out of 10 that includes the aforementioned NC Central, Loyala, and Bryant games followed by winning 5 of their first 7 games in a somewhat lighter portion of their conference schedule.
• Longest predicted losing streak = 4 games. A tough stretch that includes Ohio State, @ Wisconsin, Michigan State, and @ Minnesota.
• Toughest Stretch = 7-game stretch that includes the above 4-game predicted losing streak preceded by @ Illinois, Purdue, and @ Northwestern. Ouch!
• Up until the above tough stretch, I have the Hoosiers predicted to be at a 12-7 mark. If they are at or near that record, this will be a very interesting point in the season. Will this team be coming together, hitting their stride, and up for the challenge of this stretch? If so, the glory could be returning to IU sooner than expected. Or will this young team be tiring down the stretch, outmatched, and ultimately frustrated during this stretch? Another unanswered question that will be very interesting to watch unfold.

So, let’s hear it Hoosier fans, what’s your prediction for this season’s record????