Preview: Indiana vs. Pittburgh - Jimmy V Classic in NYC

What:  Jimmy V Classic
Who:  Indiana vs. Pittsburgh
When:  Tuesday at 9pm ET (8pm CT)
Where:  Madison Square Garden
TV:  ESPN

I really want to predict the Hoosiers to win this one.  I gave some serious thought to predicting this as the first meaningful win of the Tom Crean era.  I wanted to run with the idea that the full week off would do a tremendous amount of good for this young team.  And while I do think the extra practice time will be valuable for the Hoosiers, I just don't think it will be enough to predict the upset.

Pitt is down a little this year, but I think they will be too tough for the young Hoosiers.  Pitt is 7-1 and has held their opponents to 60 points or less in all 7 of their wins.  Their 1 loss came to a very good Texas team. 

Looking at the stats, there are a couple factors (other than solid defense) that have helped Pitt hold their opponents to low scoring outputs.  Pitt does a great job in keeping their opponents off the offensive glass which obviously limits second-chance points.  They also do an admirable job of playing solid defense without fouling and that limits easy points at the charity stripe.  If you have checked out statsheet.com or kenpom.com, these are two of the "four factors of winning".

Pitt ranks #5 in the nation at keeping their opponents off the offensive boards while IU is #112 at crashing the offensive boards.  Pitt ranks #26 for how often they send their opponent to the line while IU is somewhat respectable at #71 in the nation for often they get to the line.  However, flipping that stat around shows a real problem area for IU because they are #317 at how often they send their opponent to the line (note to Tom Pritchard -- stop fouling!).  Pitt is #38 for how often they get to the stipe, so that could definitely be an issue for the Hoosiers in this game.

Stats aside, I am hoping the IU sophomores show up big in this game.  I feel like Pritchard is close to putting together a good game.  I'm not sure the Pitt game is a good time to predict that, but I can hope.  I also think Verdell needs to be effective on the offensive end if IU wants to stay close and have a chance to win at the end.  The main thing is that Verdell needs to shoot a better percentage and hit the shots that he is capable of making.  It would be great to see those two sophomores play well and then see what this team can do.  If IU can get Rivers, Jones, and Pritchard to play at a consistently high level and then add the talent of the freshmen, then you have a team that can compete.

In this game, I think the Hoosiers can keep it close, but once again, I fear they will still lose in the end.

Prediction:  IU 61  Pitt 68