BIG FAT Season Preview: Your 2010-2011 Indiana Hoosiers

I was going to start with a review of each player, including a little extra on the newcomers.  But you guys know the players already, so let's dive right into the good stuff like who's gonna start, who's gonna get the lion's share of minutes, and so on.

First, here's my thoughts on a traditional depth chart:

1 - PG:  Verdell Jones III, Jordan Hulls, Daniel Moore, Taylor Wayer
2 - SG:  Maurice Creek (once healthy), Victor Oladipo, Matt Roth
3 - SF:  Christian Watford, Jeremiah Rivers, Will Sheehey, Kory Barnett
4 - PF:  Derek Elston, Bobby Capobianco, Jeff Howard
5 - C:   Guy-Marc Michel, Tom Pritchard

Of course, a traditional depth chart is not how Tom Crean is actually going to substitute or manage minutes.  If Verdell plays 35 minutes in a game, that doesn't mean that Hulls will only see 5 minutes.  So, we'll break down how many minutes per game each player will average in a moment.  But first, let's take a look at some of the interesting tidbits from the above depth chart:

Jeremiah Rivers -- Not starting and not playing point guard.  From Tom Crean's comments over the last several months, it certainly sounds like Rivers will be moved out of the point guard position and likely to the 3-spot.  There have also been comments from Crean that Rivers will have to earn his minutes by playing the exceptional defense he was known for at Georgetown and rebounding the basketball.  I think it's a smart move and I hope it works out.  The move to the 3-spot would allow Rivers to continue to use his strengths (last year, he was 1st on the team in steals, 2nd in blocks, and 2nd in rebounds) while minimizing his weaknesses (sometimes out of control with the basketball, can't shoot, FT line struggles).


Verdell Jones III -- Move to point guard.  If my memory serves me correctly, Verdell moved to the point for the final 3 games of last year and averaged 17.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2 turnovers in those 3 games.  A small sample size for sure, but those are pretty good numbers.  I think we may continue to see some high turnover numbers out of Verdell, but he is going to be asked to do a lot in this offense and I think his productivity (in the form of both points and assists) will outweigh any turnovers.

Maurice Creek -- Creek looks like he still has a way to go in his recovery from last year's devastating knee injury.  There was limited video coverage of Creek at Hoosier Hysteria, but he still looked to be favoring it quite a bit and did not participate in the scrimmage.  Today, practice was open to the media and it was reported that Creek sat out most of today's practice as well.  The good news is that it sounds like everything is going well with his recovery, but I think IU is going to be extremely careful with him, especially after witnessing what just happened to Robbie Hummel.  Also in IU's favor is a very light schedule to start the season, so hopefully they can slowly increase Mo's minutes.

Victor Oladipo -- As a direct result of Creek working his way back, expect to see Victor Oladipo get an opportunity to play some minutes early in the season.  My guess is that Oladipo will have some shining moments early in the season against lesser competition, but I am most interested in seeing how Oladipo plays against top competition.  If you didn't see the highlights from Hoosier Hysteria yet, you at least need to check out these Oladipo dunks posted on Inside the Hall.

Christian Watford -- Moving to the 3-spot.  Last year, Watford was forced to play out of position at the 4-spot.  While he admirably led the team in rebounding with 6 per contest along with 12 ppg, he was often overmatched and had many a shot blocked.  Watford certainly has the offensive tools to play the 3, but Tom Crean recently said that Christian will need to be able to defend smaller players and still rebound at a high level.  If Watford can do those things, I think we can look forward to a sophomore season that builds on what was a very successful freshman campaign.

Derek Elston -- Look for Elston to get the opportunity to start at the 4-spot.  Elston has definitely done the work in the weight room and looks ready to have a break-out season.  His defense will likely dictate whether or not he can hold down a starting spot.  If he improves on that end of the floor, we might be able to expect numbers similar to those that he put up in the final 3 games of last season -- 25 minutes, 13.3 points, and 8 rebounds per game.

The Big Men Are The Big Unknown -- We plain and simply don't know squat yet about Guy-Marc Michel and we don't know if Tom Pritchard's junior season will resemble his freshman or sophomore season.  If Michel can defend and rebound and Pritchard can return to freshman form, then I think many of the above things will hold true -- Elston & Capo play the 4 and Watford plays the 3.  However, if Michel and Pritchard can't get the job done at the 5-spot, then expect Crean to go small again to get the best players on the floor.

With the depth chart above, I have basically shown my starting lineup (Jones, Creek, Watford, Elston, Michel).  However, that lineup is what I hope to have by conference play.  I think that's the lineup that gives IU the best chance to make major leaps in restoring the success of the program.  That lineup is big, athletic, has a shot-blocker, and has multiple scorers.  But with Creek still recovering and Michel likely needing to further hone his skills, that likely won't be the starting lineup we see in non-conference play.

My non-conference starting lineup at the start of the season is Jones, Hulls, Watford, Elston, and Pritchard.  However, I really think Crean will tinker with a number of different combinations throughout the games.  Here's how I see the minutes ending up on an average minutes per game basis:

31 mpg - Verdell Jones III
26 mpg - Christian Watford
22 mpg - Jordan Hulls
20 mpg - Maurice Creek
20 mpg - Derek Elston
16 mpg - Jeremiah Rivers
16 mpg - Tom Pritchard
14 mpg - Guy-Marc Michel
12 mpg - Victor Oladipo
10 mpg - Bobby Capobianco
8 mpg - Matt Roth
5 mpg - Will Sheehey

Admittedly, my first pass at breaking down the minutes per game ended up being the equivalent of having 7 players on the floor at all times.  So, I think that illustrates that nobody will simply be given minutes just because there is nobody else.  There will be competition for playing time this year.  Creek's minutes are at 20 only because I think his minutes will be limited early in the season. 

Let's switch gears now and take a look at the schedule.  A quick preview is that the non-conference portion is pretty light, which I love.  Right now, I think this program simply needs wins.  I don't care who it is against, we need wins.  Any wins.

But even if the Hoosiers take care of business in the non-conference, I wouldn't get carried away with expectations just yet.  The Big Ten is going to be strong this year.  Very strong.  Most of last year's top players are back again this year and many of the top teams are also adding strong recruiting classes. 

But let's not waste any more time, let's get down to the game-by-game predictions:

W - Florida Gulf Coast
W - Wright State (this one might be the toughest of the small school opponents)
W - Mississippi Valley State
W - Evansville
W - North Carolina Central
W - Northwestern State (holy shit, we're 6-0!)
L - @ Boston College (winnable game, but I think we lose on the road as part of Big Ten/ACC Challenge)
W - Savannah State
L - @ Kentucky
W - Southern Illinois-Edwardsville
W - South Carolina State
W - Northern Iowa (In VEGAS! Don't forget, this was a 30-win team last year that made BIG noise in the tourney last year)
L - New Mexico (against Steve Alford in VEGAS.  Another option for Vegas would be to lose to Northern Iowa, but then beat Colorado.  Both scenarios assume N Mexico beats Colorado)

So, that's 10-3 in non-conference play.  I would definitely take that!  Even if they can't pull off a win in Vegas, that's still 9-4 assuming they don't get beat by any of the teams we once had the luxury of referring to as cupcakes. 

W - Penn St
L - Ohio St
L - @ Minnesota
L - @ Northwestern
W - Michigan
L - @ Wisconsin
W - @ Iowa
L - Illinois
L - @ Michigan St
W - Minnesota
W - Iowa
L - @ Purdue
W - @ Michigan
W - Northwestern (we would be 7-7 and 17-10 overall at this point)
L - Purdue
L - @ Ohio St
L - Wisconsin
L - @ Illinois

As noted above, if my predictions hold true, we would be at 7-7 in the Big Ten and 17-10 overall with 4 games to play.  Unfortunately, the last 4 games are brutal and I've put them all in the loss column.  But heck, if they can win 17 of their first 27 games, there might be just enough confidence to close out the season.

Regardless, I have the Hoosiers going 17-14 in the regular season with a 7-11 mark in conference play.  I would be happy with that and I actually think the big leap for the Hoosiers will take place the following season.  Rivers is the only senior this year and the Big Ten will finally lose some talent.

As for the post-season, I'll say the Hoosiers go 1-1 in the Big Ten Tourney to earn an invite to the NIT where they also go 1-1.  That would give them a final record of 19-12. 

A few quick notes on some other topics:

* Tom Crean (in general) -- This guy is doing and saying all the right things.  Because of Crean doing things the right way, it's just simply going to be that much sweeter when the glory returns to Old IU.

* Tom Crean (recruiting) -- There is a TON of talent in the state of Indiana over the next four years and Crean has been making major progress with in-state recruiting.  The in-state verbal commitments have been piling up and if you follow recruiting at all, you know that Cody Zeller will be making his decision soon between IU, Butler, and North Carolina.  He has already taken his official visits to Butler and UNC.  He will take his official to IU over Halloween weekend when IU is having The Night of the Living Red.

* I always knew that once Eric Montross signed with North Carolina, IU should have revoked Todd Leary's scholarship offer.

* If you need to get caught up on all the off-season news, I strongly recommend that you browse Inside the Hall's archives right here.

* If you want a Season Preview in magazine format, order a copy of the Maple Street Press Hoosier Tip-Off 2010-2011.  I just received mine in the mail about a week ago and it is outstanding.  128 pages, all color, all Hoosiers, no advertisments.  Enough said.