IU's First Disappointing Loss of the Season

I think we all knew this was coming.  I don't think any of us truly believed we were a top 10 team in the country (or top 5 if we would have been ranked appropriately).  But man, it has been a fun ride to this point and I was certainly hoping the fun would not be paused with a home loss to the 0-4 Minnesota Gophers.  With a road game at Ohio State coming up this weekend, I had planned to get a win in tonight's game and likely lose at OSU and possibly even hang onto a top 10 spot.  Now, with tonight's loss, IU needs to shock the world yet again to avoid dropping like a rock in the rankings.  I don't see that happening, but heck, I didn't even think they would win at Evansville.  Or against Butler.  Or at NC State. Certainly not against #1 Kentucky.  Maybe not against Notre Dame.  Probably not at Michigan State (which they didn't).  And no way against #2 Ohio State.  So, my lack of faith has a pretty good record so far. 

So what the hell went wrong tonight?  For starters, here's a list:
* piss-poor defense (a disturbing trend in conference play)
* Watford & Jones 1-13 with 7 turnovers
* Giving up way too many offensive rebounds, especially in key moments down the stretch
* 6 assists to 16 turnovers

But I think the biggest thing that went wrong tonight was the thing that had fueled them to a 15-1 record.  IU was just 4-18 from the arc and 2 of those makes came late in the game by Roth.  The strange thing is that I looked at one stat before this game that gave me supreme confidence that we would win the game -- IU leading the nation in 3PT% against Minnesota's 289th ranked 3PT defense.  That just plain and simply did not come to fruition tonight.  I thought Minnesota defended the 3 well and IU did not knock down the shots when they had them. 

Of course, some of the bullet points above also play into this.  Another stat that looked to be a big IU advantage heading in was Minnesota 231st in Offensive Turnover % against IU's 34th ranked Defensive Turnover %.  Yet, IU only forced 11 Gopher turnovers.  IU's defense has fueled the offense all season, but it just wasn't there tonight.  They gave up open 3s early and gave up way way way too much penetration all night long.  The penetration led to help defense, which in turn led to giving up offensive rebounds and failed to provide transition opportunities for the offense.

Then, there was the 6 assists to 16 turnovers.  Terrible!  The passing was atrocious all night long.  There must have been 15 bounce-passes that didn't bounce 10 inches up off the ground.  Cody bailed out a few of those and IU had a few fortunate bounces or the turnover number would have been even worse.  And even if it's not a near turnover, one bad pass can slow the ball movement and not allow the opportunity for the next pass to lead to an open shot.  The offensive flow has to be crisp and passes need to be on target.  When I start my new business -- Next Level Statistics -- passing accuracy will be one of the key stats.  I think it is incredibly important in basketball and it's not measured.  To me, one bad pass in an offensive possession in basketball is just like an incompletion in football.  Obviously, a turnover is like an interception.  But even a bad pass that does not directly lead to a turnover is like an incomplete pass and loss of down.  You still have the ball, but it suddenly has become exponentially more difficult to score because of one bad pass.

In the end, it's an incredibly disappointing loss, but the Hoosiers sure built up a lot of goodwill with that 15-1 start.  Maybe they shock the world again this weekend, maybe they don't.  I'm more concerned with making sure they take care of business the following week at Nebraska and home to Penn State.  The Big Ten is going to be a grind, this IU team still has some serious flaws, but they have put themselves in a prime position to have a hugely successful year if they simply take care of business and win the games they should win.  Yes, tonight was one of those games, but at least they had banked some unfathomable wins against #1 and #2. 

A few more notes in closing:

* Cody is frickin' awesome.  Without him, I'd have my hand hovering over the panic button.  With him, I truly believe we are a good team.  We may have some ups and downs, but we have Cody Zeller, so we're not going to disappear.

* In IU's 2 losses, I've at least liked the fight.  Came back from down 18 against MSU and made the final minute tonight very interesting when this game should have been over.

* Hated the final play -- at least give yourself a chance.  Watford blindly threw a baseball pass that was deflected out of bounds, then blindly threw another baseball pass that was nowhere near an IU player.  That was it?  I'd prefer to get it in bounds and at least get a heave in the air (in fairness, if that happened and failed, I'd bitch that we didn't try a baseball pass to get it past half-court).  Note: the term "baseball pass" sounds completely bizarre to me right now.  So much so, I had to google it to see if that was an actual term.  That makes no fucking sense.  There aren't any passes in baseball.  And it's not like Watford went into a windup before throwing the pass.  If anything, it's more like a football pass.

* IU's 22-25 from the line kept them in striking distance (Cody 9-9).

* Late in the game, IU was full-court pressing.  After an IU make, Minnesota inbounded and Oladipo deflected it out-of-bounds.  As Minnesota went to inbound again, the Gopher player clearly moved his feet while trying to inbound.  Sheehey went crazy indicating travel, but no call.  I saw it immediately and was also going crazy.  Am I not understanding that rule correctly?  Once the previous play had been run and it went out of bounds on Oladipo, Minnesota no longer has the right to move on the baseline -- that rule is only on the play immediately following a made basket, not after a ball is knocked out of bounds, right?  What am I missing?  This was so obvious and right in front of the official with Sheehey literally making the traveling signal to the ref.  My only thought is that maybe there is a rule that if the ball is not possessed in the court of play, then the move on the baseline after made basket rule still applies for the next inbounds pass.  Anyone know?  Because if that was just a plain missed call, it was worthy of throwing a chair across the floor.

* A couple feast or famine players -- Hulls and Oladipo.  At times, Hulls seems completely out of sorts with bad decisions that you just don't expect out of him.  But then he'll hit a big shot.  How about those two plays toward the end of the game?  Those were sweet.  But we really need him to be rock solid.  As for Oladipo, he's supposed to be our defensive stopper, but his men are getting way too much penetration.  Yes, he has been fantastic at getting some big turnovers and turning them into points, but there are certain times in the games where you just know you need a defensive stop.  You don't need the gamble, you need solid defense and a stop.  Seems like Vic is letting his man get a step and get into the lane which in turn breaks down the entire defense which in turn breaks down rebounding position and assignments.  We were the better team tonight and if we would have simply played "solid" on both ends of the floor, we should have been able to easily win this home game.

* Word was that Watford was sick earlier in the week and that ankle twist probably didn't help.  Not making excuses, just thought it was worth noting.

* We haven't talked much about Remy Abell, but definitely seeing some positive things out of the freshman.  Looks like a very promising player.

* Matt Roth needs more shots.  I don't care how they do it, just find a way to get more looks for Matt Roth.  What an amazing shooter. 

* Great to see Will Sheehey back.  12 points and 6 rebounds in only 15 minutes was outstanding.  Just wish it could have been in a winning effort.

Let's get back on track, Hoosiers.