Time to Panic?

Well, I don't think it's time to panic just yet, but the Hoosiers certainly can't afford a misstep. There are 5 teams that are 1 game back of IU in the loss column and only 1 of those teams has fewer overall wins than IU. So, if IU would drop back to that pack, it could be trouble. However, even after this tough stretch, they are still in sole possession of 3rd place. So, they could guarantee third by themselves if they could get hot and run the table. Or they could even guarantee themselves a tie for 3rd by winning three of their last four. When looking at the schedule, you would hope the home games against Minnesota and Penn State would be wins. Then, if you are going to win one on the road, at Northwestern would be the place to do it. But several of us on this blog have witnessed them lose in Evanston on more than one occassion. The other game is at Michigan State and they will certainly need to play better if they want any chance of winning that one. So, 3 of 4 is certainly doable and that would also get the Hoosiers some other key regular seasons numbers -- 3rd place (at least tied) in the Big Ten behind two Top 5 teams (actually they are ranked #1 & #2 right now). And it would also get them to 20 wins. Now if they would only win 2 of their last 4, then they would likely fall into the log-jam in the middle of the Big Ten. That could even mean a Thursday game in the Big Ten tournament and that game may even be a must-win to get into the Big Dance. I don't even like to think about the "bubble" word, so they just need to take care of Minnesota on Wednesday and then find a way to win a road game. A win at Michigan State would be huge for the overall confidence of this team. The Hoosiers got absolutely hammered in the polls today -- dropped 15 spots in the AP poll down to # 39 and they dropped 13 spots in the ESPN poll to # 32. Sportline RPI still has them at # 20, so that's good. Even though they lost 2 games this week and have lost 4 of 7, I do have to say that I was a little surprised at how far they dropped. The big question is why can't this team win on the road? Well, I obviously don't know -- my stance heading into the Michigan game was that they needed to force a low-scoring ugly game to win. Well, that was definitely an ugly game and the Hoosiers still couldn't find a way to win. I think that is why this game was so frustrating. Against Purdue, their two best players had great games....that's going to be tough to beat on the road. But Michigan played horribly and let IU hang around the whole game. When a team opens the door like that on the road, you have to take advantage. I do have a few theories as to why they are not getting it done on the road. A couple are pretty obvious, but one of these theories may not be as obvious. First, the obvious ones: 1. Defense -- Clearly the 81 points by Purdue and Iowa were less than desirable defensive results. But even with Michigan only scoring 58 points, I just don't feel like their defense has been as intense as it has been at times earlier in the year. On the road, you're defense has to be smothering and you have to force turnovers. 2. Rebounding -- Just like the defense, they just haven't been rebounding the ball as well as they were earlier in the year. I think part of that is the struggles out of the # 4 spot and the fact that D.J. can't be overly aggressive on the boards because of a fear of foul trouble. Now that I mention it, I think D.J.'s defense has also been mediocre -- it's a tough spot for D.J. because he knows that he has to be on the floor for this team to have a chance. Ok, here's the not-so-obvious one: 3. They need a go-to player on the perimeter. Well, maybe it's not that it is not obvious, maybe it's that they just don't have that player. Still with me? Anyway, their best player is D.J., but D.J. is a post player. It's tougher for a post player to take charge of a game because sometimes it's just tough for them to touch the ball. And when they do get the ball, they often face double-teams. However, a perimeter player can get the ball and go one-on-one to get their shot. A couple Hoosiers have shown flashes of being able to do this -- Bassett and Wilmont. I really like Bassett's willingness and desire to be this guy at the end of the game. However, he's still a freshman and hasn't been able to always deliver. He certainly didn't against Michigan with a 1-9 shooting night, including the miss at the end that would have tied it. On several occassions this year, Wilmont has stepped up and hit the big shots at key points throughout the game, but he doesn't seem to be the one taking the shots at the end of the game. Personally, in situations like the Michigan game where you have to have a 3, I'd like to see a play run for Wilmont. He seems to be the player on the team that has been able to hit the toughest treys with defenders in his face. Another key stat -- in IU's two road wins this year, Wilmont logged 23 points and 25 points in those games. I like the fact that the Hoosiers are balanced and that different guys can step up on any given night. But at the same time, I think you still want your best players to always be putting pressure on the defense. I would like to see D.J. and Wilmont each get 10-plus shots every game. Especially on the road -- sure, it's nice for Mike White and Suhr to step up and play well. But most likely, if 40 Cent and Suhr are leading in scoring, you aren't going to beat anyone on the road. However, if your two best players have good games and then you get good contributions from role players to boot, you have a shot at beating somebody. I haven't wavered all year for my backing of Wilmont and I still stand behind the idea that this team goes on its big runs when Wilmont is firing away. In Rod we Trust. Go Hoosiers!