It's time to make your prediction for IU's matchup with Arkansas.I'm really struggling with this one. One thing is for sure and that's if IU decides not to show up for this one, they will be done in a hurry. You would hope that they would play with intensity in the NCAA tournament, but you would have thought the same thing at Michigan State with a share of the Big Ten title on the line and again at the Big Ten tournament. So, I do think it's a possibility that this team doesn't even show up and this thing is over before it even starts.
But to prevent another short blog post, I am going to assume that they show up ready to play so that I can continue with my analysis. The good news is that they will have been off for a full week, so hopefully that will help them be ready.
I do think this is an interesting matchup. Arkansas is athletic and wants to play an up-tempo game.
On the one hand, I could see Arkansas forcing IU turnovers, getting every loose ball, and crashing the offensive boards. This would obviously spell disaster for IU.
However, on the other hand, I could see the up-tempo and a pressing defense from Arkansas as just what the doctor ordered for IU. Could that style of play lead to some different types of looks for Eric Gordon and IU's offense? I think if IU can hang on to the ball, they could score some serious points in this one. So, I'm just not sure how they style of play is going to impact the game.
Another thing about Arkansas is their size. They have a few guys that are 6-10 or taller. The thing that I am not really sure about is how good these big men are. Their 7-footer was on the SEC's defensive team, but does nothing on offense. They have another 6-10 player that is a good offensive player though, so I do think that DJ is going to have his hands full.
I'm not too concerned about DJ's scoring. I think IU's guards are going to be the key for IU's offense. If the IU guards can handle the ball and hit some shots, IU will be fine. The key for DJ is going to be rebounding. He needs to be a monster on the boards. Arkansas beat Vanderbilt and Tennessee by beating them on the boards, especially the offensive boards. IU lost to Penn State and Minnesota by giving up too many second chance points. Not a good combination, so DJ will have to own the glass.
But DJ will need help and a big factor will be Jamarcus Ellis. First, Jamarcus needs to get his head straight and show up to play. He could play a huge role in this game. He obviously needs to have a big game on the boards, but he could also play a big ball-handling role against the Arkansas pressure defense.
Ok, I have several more angles on this game, but this post is just rambling and not really providing any useful information at all.
Therefore, I am going to try to summarize and get to my prediction.
I fear that Arkansas may get to all the loose balls, crash the offensive boards, and generally run circles around IU. I also fear that IU gets off to another horrible start and it should be noted that Arkansas is 18-0 when leading at halftime.
However, I do also think that if IU can handle the defensive pressure, they might be able to get some really good looks against Arkansas. This isn't going to be the Wisconsin defense where you have to earn every point you get. I'm expecting this to be high pressure and athletic, but there will be holes and some easy baskets if IU doesn't turn the ball over. And maybe, just maybe, if IU can get some easy baskets, then maybe the 3-pointers start to fall again.
The brain is telling me that there is a big risk that IU doesn't even show up and that Arkansas may just run circles around our Hoosiers.
My heart is telling me that Eric Gordon is going to get a big-time tomahawk dunk followed by a flurry of 3-pointers.
My family jewels are telling me that they would give anything to stop taking low blow after low blow from this team.
My prediction: IU 80 Arkansas 76
Go Hoosiers!
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7 comments:
ryun:
i'm sorry, i know this isn't helping, but can you imagine if we had vaden and ewing, jr. on this team? i wasn't that sad to see ewing go at the time, but we sure could use him at that 4 position. of course i hope vaden is happy with that loser for a coach and playing in the NIT!
My heart is telling me that the Hoosiers can and will win; that they are going to unite, beat Arkansas and maybe even give UNC a run for their money. But then I remember how the Hoosiers gave up tons of second chance points to a bunch of freshmen at Penn St and to Minnesota with one of their goons on the bench with an injury. I think about the size and experience that Arkansas has and how they pounded Vanderbilt and Tennessee on the boards and I get a little ill. It could be a long night for the Hoosiers. So, based upon that brief analysis, here is my prediction:
UNC 92, Arkansas 77
Oops! Wrong game.
From my heart - IU 78, Ark 74
From my gut - Ark 79, IU 65
Also, I find it interesting how the blog on the next IU coach has 12 comments and the blog about the IU-Ark game has 1 comment (now 2 with this one).
Andy hit it right on the nose. I guess it all changes (temporarily) tomorrow night if IU wins, but I watch the games today and just keep thinking "what if this is IU's new coach". Not exactly what I expected from this year's tourney 4 months ago.
Andy, great point on how the coaching search is getting more attention than IU's tournament game.
I think there is 2 reasons for that:
1. Because IU oddly announced their dumbass red ribbon committee and worldwide coaching search this week.
2. After that heart-breaking loss to Minnesota and that piece of shit draw as an #8 seed, I had to shift my attention to the next coach and what the future might hold because the present situation was going to kill me.
Sean, I'm watching these tournament games the same way....just thinking maybe this guy is IU's next coach.
It should be noted that if you have already decided that you want a coach, you actually want them to lose early in the tournament. For example, if Washington State goes to the Final Four, they are going to do everything in their power to keep Tony Bennett. Same is true if Bruce Pearl and Tennessee make a deep run.
By the way, I just read that Sean Miller has a $2 million buyout clause and fear is that IU donors may not have deep pockets after contributing to Sampson's exit and the new facilities.
It would be great if one of these media outlets would do a in-depth review of the coaching candidates and included which guys have buyout clauses and all that type of stuff.
It really irks me that Duke was able to escape #15 Belmont. Can't we get anything to go our way!?!
After being tied at 29 at halftime, IU's next coach Tony Bennett and his current Washington State team outscored Winthrop 42-11 in the 2nd half.
ryun:
here's some optimism-i got every pick right for the 1st day. i picked the hoosiers to win today, so we should be good.
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