Saturday, November 10, 2007

Indiana Basketball - Player Preview

Today, we will take a look at the upcoming Hoosier basketball season. We'll start with a player preview and then will later have a post that takes a closer look at the schedule. As always, your comments are encouraged and appreciated. In addition, please take a moment to vote on the poll questions.

D.J. White We have to start with the All-American candidate. You have to admire D.J.'s decision to come back to IU for a couple reasons -- first, it was the right decision and second, it makes IU one of the best team's in the country which is what all of us care about. I expect D.J. to have a big year. Now that he is another year removed from the injury-plagued season, I think he is entering this season feeling great about himself and feeling great about his team. He has worked extremely hard in the off-season and has embraced the leadership role on a team that includes 6 newcomers.

Because of the infusion of talent to this team, I don't think that D.J. necessarily has to make a big leap in his scoring average, but another small step up would be nice. However, he does need to be a major threat and the offense needs to go through him on a good share of the half-court possessions. When he is single-covered, he needs to score and I think he will. It's the double-team where we need to see improvement. Last year, D.J. only had 40 assists to 62 turnovers. This year, I think that assist number needs to go way up. If teams are willing to double-team, IU needs to make them pay and it starts with D.J. making quick and correct decisions out of the double-team. Personally, I'd like to see those assist numbers approach 100 for the year (or around 3.0 apg). Obviously, fewer turnovers would also be better, but I think the key is making those good decisions out of the double-team and getting those assist numbers up. The good news is that this year's team has both shooters and slashers that can finish inside so I do think this will be an area of improvement this year.

And finally, D.J. just needs to be a monster on the glass and on defense with blocking shots. The good news is that the big man options of DeAndre and Eli should prove to be much better than Bendemen, which should allow D.J. to be more aggressive and not quite as concerned about fouls (but we still do need him on the floor for 30 minutes a game). Lots of teams have talented guards but many of them do not have a real good big man. If D.J. has a big year, this team has a great season. Wow, this turned out to be a lot longer than the 2 or 3 sentences I had envisioned for each player. I will try to get to the point faster on the rest of the players because I know everyone only has 4 hours per work-day dedicated to reading this crap.

Last Year's Numbers: 13.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 2.3 bpg
This Year's Forecast: 15.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.4 apg, 2.4 bpg
Accolades: 1st Team All-Big Ten; 2nd Team All-American; Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA tournament that includes a big enthusiastic signature D.J. celebration as the closing clip of "One Shining Moment". I'm crying real tears right now just thinking about it.
Eric Gordon
All I can say is call your cable company and tell them to go to hell because you want to watch Eric Gordon this year. This kid is special. He can shoot it from anywhere in the gym and he can put it on the floor with an explosive first step. He can take it to the rack and finish with power or he can finish with finesse. And he hits his free throws. He's got good size at 6-4, he's strong, he's tough, and he's a very good on-the-ball defender. Things to work on might be off-the-ball defense and ball handling. He's a pretty good ball handler already but wants to improve so that he can possibly play point guard at the next level, which will be next year. I don't think there is any point in Hoosier fans holding out hope that he'll stay because he has the size, stength, skills, and game to paly in the NBA today. He is definitely one and done, but I really think we are going to enjoy the one that we have him. All you have to do is watch EJ play for 5 minutes and you can understand why Bruce Weber still cries himself to sleep every night. For those of you that don't know, EJ stands for Eric Jr.
So how good will Gordon be this year as a Hoosier? Well, one of his best qualities is that he is very humble, he's a team player, and he lets the game come to him. Because he is so skilled offensively, I am sure there will be times where we wish he would be more aggressive. But for the long-run good of the team, I think he is going to be a perfect fit. Guys like O.J. Mayo might average 30 points this year at USC but he is a head case and he's going to put up 30 shots a game. Whereas Gordon is very efficient and seems to know when to shoot the jumper and when to blow by someone. Also, I've even heard him say that if his shot is not falling, he knows he can take it in the lane for some easy deuces and some free throws.
This Year's Forecast: 20.3 ppg
Accolades: Because of how he fits in with this team, he will be the most valuable freshman in the country, but he will get snubbed and will not win the National Freshman of the Year award. He will win the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and he will be 1st team All-Big Ten and a 2nd Team All-American.
Armon Bassett
After a very nice freshman season where he averaged 10 points per game and 3 assists per game, Bassett moves to the starting point-guard position this year. One question for this team is how Armon will handle the point. I think Bassett will be solid at the point and this team has the advantage that 3 of the newcomers (Gordon, Crawford, and Ellis) are pretty good ball-handlers. So, if a team does have a scrappy defender that is giving Bassett fits, they can simply have one of the other guys handle the ball because Bassett is also good at the 2-guard position.
I love Bassett's toughness and determination. Word is that he has worked very hard on his game and coaches have seen non-stop improvement out of him on the defensive end. He's also worked hard on his jumper and has the ability to get into the lane. He needs to improve on last year's overall shooting percentage of 38.6% and I think he will. Another good thing about Bassett at the point is that he shot 83% from the line last year. In those end of game situations where you are trying to hang on to the lead, it is good to have ball-handlers that can hit their free throws. Bottom line, I expect another solid year out of Bassett.
Last Year's Numbers: 9.5 ppg, 3.0 apg
This Year's Forecast: 8.8 ppg, 3.9 apg
Jamarcus Ellis
I'm already referring to him as the glue. This guy does it all. Look for him to flirt with a triple-double at least once this year. Not a great shooter, but he can handle the ball, he can penetrate and create, he's a great passer, and a very good rebounder. He's 6-5 with long arms and he already showed in the first exhibition game that he uses his length and athleticism on the defensive end to lead the team with 6 steals. Sampson thinks he might lead this team in assists and I bet he also leads the team in steals.
This Year's Forecast: 6.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.4 spg
Lance Stemler
Stemler does not need to be a hero, he just needs to be solid. Last year, after a concussion and ankle problems, he went into a deep freeze. With all the attention that Gordon and DJ will be getting this year, I think Stemler will will get some very good looks at the basket. If he can knock those shots down with regularity, this team will be approaching unbeatable status. Other than knocking down the open shots, we just need Stemler to play his role, which is playing hard, diving on the floor, and helping out on the boards.
Last Year's Numbers: 6.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 33% 3PT
This Year's Forecast: 5.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 37% 3PT
Jordan Crawford
Well, Crawford probably raised expectations after his 30 point debut on 6-6 shooting from the arc. However, I don't expect that level of performance on a consistent basis. That said, I was extremely impressed with his offensive skills. He can handle the ball, he's a good passer, and he definitely had his shooting stroke in that first game. I think he has a lot of work to do on the defensive end and it looks like he might be a streaky shooter. In the second exhibition game, he had a horrible first half and his shot looked terrible, but then he came around a bit in the second half. At this point, he definitely looks like he will be the first guard off the bench and looks like he could play the point or off-guard position. I think he will definitely get his share of minutes and if he plays well, Ratliff may have his work cut out for him to get some minutes. One thing I really like about him is that he can play the point and has some nice size at 6-4. My guess is that we will probably see a lot of highs and lows out of Crawford this year.
This Year's Forecast: 7.4 ppg, 3.6 apg
DeAndre Thomas
The big fella is going to need a nickname. He looks more like an offensive lineman than he does a basketball player, but after losing 50 pounds since his arrival in Bloomington, I was impressed with his footwork and quickness. In addition, he appears to have good hands, he can finish around the basket, and is supposed to be a pretty good passer. Even though he fouled out in just 12 minutes in the first exhibition game, I was quite impressed with the other things he did in those 12 minutes. It looks like he will be the first big man off the bench and will be a major improvement over Bendeman. I don't think he will put up huge numbers, but I do think he will be a positive influence when he's on the floor.
This Year's Forecast: 4.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 5 fouls per game
A.J. Ratliff
Really disappointing for a senior to be academically ineligible. It will be interesting to see what happens when he comes back. Hopefully, it will just add another weapon to a team that is on a roll. I do think that AJ will see some minutes when he comes back, but the question will be what he does with those minutes. AJ has been an incredibly inconsistent player in his career and that may not fly if Crawford is playing well. However, with the other athletes on this team, the style of play might be better suited towards AJ's game.
Last Year's Numbers: 9.3 ppg, 41% 3-PT
This Year's Forecast: 7.1 ppg, 42% 3-PT
Eli Holman
Very raw offensively, but the Hoosiers don't need him to score. All they need him to do is come in and block some shots and rebound. It will be interesting to see how he develops this year because his up-side is huge.
This Year's Forecast: 2.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.0 bpg
Brandon McGee
Until last week, I thought McGee was the top candidate to red-shirt, but it sounds like he has really been impressing the coaching staff. He has surprised some with his ability to shoot and is a very good athlete at 6-7, so he brings some versatility. He was very impressive in the 2nd exhibition game and looks like he could really have a good career at IU.
This Year's Forecast: 3.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg
Mike White
Surprisingly, it looks like Mike White may end up being redshirted. For more on that, click here.
Brett Finkelmeier, Adam Ahlfeld, Kyle Taber.
Mop-up time only.

1 comment:

Tom Earth said...

I really look to this tean to score more than Hoosier teams of recent memory. I think Gordon and DJ will score 40 points a game. Even in the defensive-minded Big Ten, I think the Hoosiers will average close to 70 points. I like the way Gordon plays D. He is not your typical superstar. I agree with Jeff that we will probably be frustrated this year that Gordon does not take over the game more. Either way, I am planning on going to one game a month. I have never been this excited for a season to start.