Well, it's a rematch of last year's tournament matchup with Gonzaga. I can't say that I like that we are playing them on the west coast, but I don't think this year's Gonzaga team is as good as their team's of the past. Of course, if we win, then we play UCLA in Sacramento -- that's trouble, but I just hope we get a chance to worry about that matchup.We did have two common opponents with Gonzaga -- Duke & Butler. Both IU and Gonzaga lost to both of them. Gonzaga's best wins were at Texas and at North Carolina (neutral sites).
Their best player is Derek Raivio, who is similar to a Drew Neitzel type player. Their other best player, Josh Heytvelt, was suspended for the rest of the seasons, but the Zags seem to be playing better without him.
All things considered, I think this is a good matchup for IU. Gonzaga is known more for their offense than their defense. Therefore, I am hoping IU can get some good looks from the arc and IU should play tougher defense than a majority of Gonzaga's conference opponents.
If Kelvin Sampson wants to put a stamp on his first season as the IU head coach, he can do so by taking this team to at least the Sweet 16.
In the past 12 seasons, the Hoosiers have only made it to the Sweet 16 once. That, of course, was their run to the title game. In the other 11 seasons, they failed to make the Big Dance twice, lost in the 1st round 5 times, and lost in the 2nd round 4 times.
And not only did they lose early in the tournament, they got blown out in many of those games. They lost those games by an average of 14 points per game with 5 of the losses being by 18 points or more. Ouch!
It will be a tough road to the Sweet 16, but if they can do it, I think most Hoosier fans would consider this season a big success. And who knows, once you get into the Sweet 16, anything can happen.
Go Hoosiers!
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I'm definitely glad that Calloway is back. This will be his type of game and I am guessing he will initially draw the tough defensive assignment of guarding Raivio. Earl just missed a triple-double in the loss to Gonzaga last year, so let's hope he can have a repeat performance.
Gonzaga gets most of their points from their guards, so IU will need to play tough defense and force them to take tough shots. However, the Hoosiers need to be very careful about going on one of their fouling sprees. Gonzaga is an excellent FT shooting team, led by Raivios 96%. I believe he had two separate stretches this year where he hit 40+ in a row. As a team, Gonzaga has made as many FTs as we have attempted this year.
It was the FT shooting that killed us against Gonzaga last year. Even though we hit 16 treys to their 2, we were only 2-6 from the line while they went 32-41.
We need to play tough defense, but don't foul! If you force them to take a tough shot and they hit it, so be it. Just don't send them to the FT line for easy points, especially Raivio.
Prediction: IU wins 77-72
By the way, this is great fun blogging with myself. Slackers. I see the votes on the poll questions, but nobody feels the need to comment on our beloved Hoosiers playing in the greatest sporting event in the world! I can point & click on a poll question, but actually typing keystrokes is just too much work.
Anyway....I actually wasn't adding a comment to bitch at the blog readers (but it is kind of fun), I was adding another comment to question why it is that we all think IU can win this game away from Assembly Hall???
The Hoosiers were a dismal 5-10 away from Assembly Hall. The 5 wins were against teams that were not even sniffing the tournament (Lafayett, IUPUI, Penn St, UConn, and NW). And the Hoosiers were 0-8 away from Assembly Hall against teams in the tournament. Pretty scary.
After reading Jeff's last comment, I tried to change my vote to IU will lose on Thursday. Fortunately you cannot change your vote on the poll. I guess I am sticking with the IU victory.
For those of you that do not talk with Jeff regularly, I found out where he gets his material for this blog. I talk to him shortly after the Selection Show and he was repeating word for word what I had just heard on SportsCenter (almost as if he was reading the transcript). Needless to say, I was very disappointed. When I confronted him on it, he hung up on me.
I also had a chance to talk with Mike Scopel after the Selection Show. For those of you that do not talk with him on a regular basis, I envy you. Mike did say that Gonzaga will soon fall off the basketball map and Mark Few will wish he had taken a job at a real program. I like the sound of that. A double-digit IU victory will get that ball rolling. See everyone in Sacramento.
I just checked Peegs and they have the game listed as an 8:45pm CT start on Thursday.
I also must steal stuff from IndyStar.com. I just read an article there that stated IU should be worried about fouling too much as Gonzaga has made as many FTs as IU has shot.
By the way, Tom Earth's access to the blog has been removed.
I have no idea why I picked us to win. I guess I wanted to send positive energy into the universe so that I will get what's coming to me...that's an IU victory dance.
I can't believe that some jack@ss stole my IU flag from my front porch.
A better IU flag is now on order. I have started to think of some ways to protect the flag from neighborhood @ssholes. Some thoughts...Barbed wire, crushed glass encrusted flagpole, bear trap..just a few ideas. I am open to suggestion.
Hoosiers need to get more out of Wilmot and DJ. needs to be scoring 15-18 pts a game. Wilmot cannot disappear on the road when his team needs him.
Chris -- I can't believe someone stole your IU flag. I like the bear trap idea to protect the new flag because then you have captured the perp and can torture them.
I am surprised that everyone is picking IU to win this game away from Assembly Hall. However, it certainly is a winnable game. Gonzaga shoots a high percentage from the field, from the arc, and especially from the FT line. I still think the key for us will be to play tough defense without fouling. They'll hit some shots, but if you can challenge them the whole game, we might force that shooting percentage lower and have a good shot at winning. The other key will be for us to simply knock down our shots. Gonzaga does not play very good defense, so we should get good looks, it will just be a matter of whether or not we can knock them down.
I know, this is real in-depth analysis. What I am really trying to say is....if we score more points than them, we will win.
Just to prove Jeff's point...I read somewhere that the team that scores more points than their opponent wins 97.7% of the time. (No matter what sport.) I knew it was a high %, but who would have thought it was that high?!?! Therefore, I give IU a 97% chance at beating Gonzaga.
FYI...They also say that you miss 99% of the putts that don't make it to the hole.
Jeff, just let me know if you would like anymore valuable information for the blog.
The flag is gone? I actually paid my old neighbor up on 60th street to take it. It is buried in your back yard...four feet to the right of the driveway....go dig it up and see!
Go Bulldogs...oh yea, we suck too much to even be in the tourney~!
Keys to the game from indystar.com:
Keys for Indiana
1) Knock down the open 3s: IU hit nine or more 3-pointers 12 times this season, and was 11-1 in those games. Last year, IU made 16 3-pointers against Gonzaga.
2) Get D.J. White involved: When opponents are forced to double down on White in the post, it opens up IU’s perimeter game. And the last three times White hasn’t scored in double figures, the Hoosiers are 0-3.
3) Calloway needs to take charge: Last year against Gonzaga, Earl Calloway had 13 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds, just missing a triple-double. He has to bring his total game this time for the Hoosiers to be effective.
Keys for Gonzaga
1) Push the pace: With Derek Raivio and Jeremy Pargo in particular, the Zags love to run.
2) Pressure IU’s guards: Gonzaga plays tough man-to-man defense and loves to extend to full-court pressure. When Earl Calloway is out of the game, IU is susceptible to this kind of approach.
3) Get the lead, and get to the line: Gonzaga averages 22 free throws a game, and shoots 75.1 percent as a team. If you foul Raivio, it’s automatic. He has missed six this season in 152 attempts and has 27 misses in 368 career attempts.
X-factor
Indiana’s Rod Wilmont: He's coming off a two-point effort in IU's loss to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament, and his game has been up and down all season. But the last three times he really struggled he followed with a breakout game — all three on the road. He scored two against Purdue, then 25 at Penn State. He scored eight against Wisconsin, then 24 at Iowa. He was held scoreless against Michigan State, then had a career-high 31 at Northwestern. Will form hold?
Prediction
Gonzaga played an incredible schedule that included victories over NCAA Tournament teams North Carolina, Texas and Stanford. It played 14 games against teams in the RPI top 100, and was 6-8.
Just two weeks ago, on a neutral court, the Zags lost by one point in overtime to Memphis. They also lost to Duke, Nevada, Washington State, Butler and Virginia.
But it’s a different kind of loss that has set Gonzaga back the most this season. On Feb. 9, forward Josh Heytvelt was charged with a felony possession of a controlled substance, and was suspended indefinitely. The 6-11 sophomore was averaging 15 points and seven rebounds per game.
Since losing Heytvelt, the Zags are 6-2 and have won five in a row, but they aren’t the same team without their man in the middle.
The big key in this game will be Indiana’s ability to keep the game in the half court and not allow Gonzaga to run. And ultimately, IU needs to be able to knock down a fair number of 3-pointers against a Gonzaga defense that allowed opponents to make an average of eight per game. But opponents did so at a 33.8 percent clip.
The game should be a battle of wills, but Indiana’s defense gets the edge as does the Hoosiers’ ability to shoot the ball from beyond the arc.
Most people will see this game as a two- or three-point difference.
• Indiana wins, 71-63
Holy crap, is it Thursday yet? I feel like I've been waiting half my life for this game!
Wilmont has only 2 points in his last two games on the road. Of course, he had something like 54 points in his last 2 games at home. At least this is a neutral site, but which Rod will show up on Thursday night? That could be the answer to who wins this game. For the Hoosiers, even something in the middle (say, 12 or 14 points) out of Wilmont would be acceptable. He just can't have an 0-7 or 2-13 type performance.
In fact, you know that IU needs solid performances out of Calloway, Bassett, Ratliff, Wilmont, and D.J. And hopefully, one or two of those guys will really catch fire and lead this team to victory.
The question is who else is going to see minutes and add value in this game for the Hoosiers?
Stemler -- you can get open 3-point looks against Gonzaga. Do you give Stemler a chance to see if he can knock a few down? I say you give him some minutes, but if he misses his first two shots (especially if he misses badly as he is known to do), you sit him right back down.
40 Cent -- I'd like to see Mike White get the starting nod again. I think that there will be a lot of garbage points to be had in this game and 40 Cent is our best garbage man.
Bendeman -- Maybe some slightly improved play as of late, but I think you only go here in tourney time if absolutely necessary.
Shaw -- You certainly like Shaw's offensive skills in a game like this, but he fouls more than any other IU player on defense and the Hoosiers need to guard against fouling too much in this game. Therefore, I think Shaw should only see significant minutes if Ratliff and Wilmont are stinking up the joint. Of course, while Shaw commits more fouls per minute than anyone else, he also is IU's best player at getting to the free throw line. So, he is really a wildcard, but I still think it's limited minutes if Ratliff and Wilmont are getting the job done.
Suhr -- With Gonzaga's high-octane guards, I actually wouldn't mind seeing a 2-3 minute stretch each half to see if he could step in front and take a charge or two or three or four. And if you're in the game, you might as well knock down a 3 while you're at it.
Keeling -- Maybe some minutes to give Mike White a break in that garbage man role. But if Stemler could somehow hit some shots, I thinnk you like the 3-point threat of Stemler. Of course, this is a big IF when it comes to Stemler.
Officiating -- Gonzaga does a much better job getting to the FT line, so if the officiating crew is calling it close, IU could be in trouble. We would prefer a crew that lets them play a little bit more.
I think this will be a game of runs, so let's not get too excited about a 10-point lead or a 10-point deficit. I'm talking to myself right now. One of the steps of my sports-related anger management program is to get in the right mental frame of mind before the game starts.
Go Hoosiers!
If Calloway will play well, and we give DJ looks, we need either Wilmont or Ratliff to be hot. I don't even think we need both. Bassett needs to be himself. I like Mike White at our other forward spot. Now, if we can get a game in which Wilmont and Ratliff are both hot and we give DJ looks, we really could beat just about anyone. With the Mike Davis ball we've been playing, we'll be 1 and done.
Cook, I would like to agree that we don't necessarily need both Wilmont and Ratliff to be hot. My only concern is that it usually takes each of those guys about 7-10 shots to figure out that they are cold. However, between the 2 of them, if they can hit around 40% of their 3-point attempts, we should be in good shape. So, I don't care if one of them is 0-6 and the other is 5-6, just as long as they both are not cold on the same night.
I do think Calloway will play well and Bassett has been pretty consistent, so I feel good about those two guys. And I definitely agree that we need to get D.J. some looks. I think he has an advantage in this game and our 3-point shooting could be way more effective if we go inside first.
We shall see....
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