All year long, the talk has been that IU's magic number is 70. Well, looking at this matchup with UCLA, that magic number of 70 certainly applies.
Taking a look at UCLA's 5 losses on the year, it appears that poor shooting (especially from their stars) was the main culprit. In each of those 5 losses, UCLA scored less than 70 points (69, 68, 66, 65, & 51). However, holding UCLA under 70 in no way guarantees victory, it's just part of the equation. UCLA has actually won 9 games when scoring less than 70. But still, when you compare a 9-5 record when UCLA scores under 70 versus an 18-0 record when they score more than 70, then you better hold them under 70 just to have a CHANCE to win.
IU's record is almost as impressive as UCLA's when scoring more than 70 -- the Hoosiers are 18-1. Under 70, IU is only 3-9.
So, I think a 70-69 victory sounds about right for the Hoosiers.
First and foremost, I think IU has to really play tough defense and rebound. UCLA's star players are likely going to take their shots whether they are open or not. So, if IU can put the clamps on them, they may start to force some shots and hopefully that will lead to a low percentage. Again, if IU can really defend, they at least give themselves a CHANCE to win.
On the offensive end, they need to play like they played in the 2nd half against Gonzaga. Even though IU shot a much higher 3-point percentage in the 1st half, their whole offense began to click in the 2nd half. The 2nd half included D.J. inside, a couple layups from Calloway, hitting all their FTs, and a couple 3-balls. The key was that they were scoring from all angles and that is what led to the double-digit lead. The more they do that, the better the 3-point looks will be. In the first half, IU was forcing up the 3-point shots and they were just fortunate that they were making some of them. So, against UCLA, I'd like to see an offense that resembles the 2nd half of the Gonzaga game, instead of the 1st half.
To state the obvious, they need another good game from both DJ and Wilmont to pull off the upset. But I think Terry Hutchens on indystar.com nailed the X factor and that's Stemler. Following his 110% effort against Gonzaga, Stemler should see a lot of minutes against UCLA. If he can play the same way, but also find a way to knock down a couple of those jumpers, IU could indeed pull off the upset.
More on Stemler….I thought he was outstanding last night (ignoring the god-awful shooting from the arc). He was a ball-hawk last night -- rebounds, steals, loose balls. He truly gave an all-out effort. I actually thought (or hoped) that his good play in other areas might lead to a few shots going down for him, but no such luck. But you have to love the way he came out and did everything in his power to help IU win.
Maybe the best thing about last night's game was IU's attitude -- they came out and played to win that game. Gonzaga didn't know what hit them. That will be a tougher task against UCLA because you know they will have their own swagger, but if IU can play with toughness and an attitude, it could lead to good things.
Play tough D, own the glass, and who knows….maybe the shots will fall and the Hoosiers will head into the Sweet 16. And if they can make it to the Sweet 16 -- look out for the Hoosiers! Indiana is traditionally very good at turning a Sweet 16 appearance into a Final 4 appearance. Ok, so I am getting a little carried away here, but that is the best thing about the tournament -- Dream Big!
Go Hoosiers!
Taking a look at UCLA's 5 losses on the year, it appears that poor shooting (especially from their stars) was the main culprit. In each of those 5 losses, UCLA scored less than 70 points (69, 68, 66, 65, & 51). However, holding UCLA under 70 in no way guarantees victory, it's just part of the equation. UCLA has actually won 9 games when scoring less than 70. But still, when you compare a 9-5 record when UCLA scores under 70 versus an 18-0 record when they score more than 70, then you better hold them under 70 just to have a CHANCE to win.
IU's record is almost as impressive as UCLA's when scoring more than 70 -- the Hoosiers are 18-1. Under 70, IU is only 3-9.
So, I think a 70-69 victory sounds about right for the Hoosiers.
First and foremost, I think IU has to really play tough defense and rebound. UCLA's star players are likely going to take their shots whether they are open or not. So, if IU can put the clamps on them, they may start to force some shots and hopefully that will lead to a low percentage. Again, if IU can really defend, they at least give themselves a CHANCE to win.
On the offensive end, they need to play like they played in the 2nd half against Gonzaga. Even though IU shot a much higher 3-point percentage in the 1st half, their whole offense began to click in the 2nd half. The 2nd half included D.J. inside, a couple layups from Calloway, hitting all their FTs, and a couple 3-balls. The key was that they were scoring from all angles and that is what led to the double-digit lead. The more they do that, the better the 3-point looks will be. In the first half, IU was forcing up the 3-point shots and they were just fortunate that they were making some of them. So, against UCLA, I'd like to see an offense that resembles the 2nd half of the Gonzaga game, instead of the 1st half.
To state the obvious, they need another good game from both DJ and Wilmont to pull off the upset. But I think Terry Hutchens on indystar.com nailed the X factor and that's Stemler. Following his 110% effort against Gonzaga, Stemler should see a lot of minutes against UCLA. If he can play the same way, but also find a way to knock down a couple of those jumpers, IU could indeed pull off the upset.
More on Stemler….I thought he was outstanding last night (ignoring the god-awful shooting from the arc). He was a ball-hawk last night -- rebounds, steals, loose balls. He truly gave an all-out effort. I actually thought (or hoped) that his good play in other areas might lead to a few shots going down for him, but no such luck. But you have to love the way he came out and did everything in his power to help IU win.
Maybe the best thing about last night's game was IU's attitude -- they came out and played to win that game. Gonzaga didn't know what hit them. That will be a tougher task against UCLA because you know they will have their own swagger, but if IU can play with toughness and an attitude, it could lead to good things.
Play tough D, own the glass, and who knows….maybe the shots will fall and the Hoosiers will head into the Sweet 16. And if they can make it to the Sweet 16 -- look out for the Hoosiers! Indiana is traditionally very good at turning a Sweet 16 appearance into a Final 4 appearance. Ok, so I am getting a little carried away here, but that is the best thing about the tournament -- Dream Big!
Go Hoosiers!
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3 comments:
i posted a comment, and it was gone like that! wilmont better not follow up with a 2 point game! we will need wilmont and ratliff both to be hot to beat ucla, and that doesn't happen much, so i have to say i'm picking against the hoosiers this time. stemler was like i have never seen him, i just don't understand why he can't shoot. nice to see the big ten 3-0 and duke lose! now if purdue could lose, illinois win, and see the ACC start going down, this could be a great tourney!
Defense and rebounding will determine the game. Teams like UCLA like to run up and down the court and seem to get frustrated when they can't get easy buckets. Make them work hard for shots and don't give up many uncontested shots. Also the rebounding is key so that they don't get second and third chances.
We've got a shot.
btw-i voted for wilmont as mvp of that game
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